Go Gilloly!

Good song, but it reaches new heights when #67 is mentioned by name:



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Bill James 2007 Pirates Comparison

So you might recall before the season we brought you what Bill James thought the Pirates would put up this year. Now it's time to revisit those numbers and see just how predictable the old PBC was, projections are in italics on the first line, results are in bold on the second line:


H HR R RBI Avg OPS
Wilson 163 9 72 51 0.269 0.689

141 12 67 56 0.296 0.790







Sanchez 179 6 77 67 0.319 0.800

183 11 77 81 0.304 0.785







Bay 173 35 108 109 0.299 0.959

133 21 78 84 0.247 0.745







LaRoche 144 29 80 89 0.281 0.883

153 21 71 88 0.272 0.803







Nady 107 15 50 55 0.278 0.788

120 20 55 72 0.278 0.806







Paulino 134 9 48 56 0.298 0.764

120 11 56 55 0.263 0.703







Bautista 66 10 35 35 0.252 0.780

135 15 75 63 0.254 0.753







McLouth 48 4 31 14 0.258 0.713

85 13 62 38 0.258 0.810

The most surprising revelations here are how improved Jack Wilson was at the plate last year and how Nady did not really have that big of a break out season.

On to the pitchers where it gets ugly:


IP BB SO W L ERA
Duke 225 63 132 12 13 3.96

107 25 41 3 8 5.53







Snell 194 67 167 10 12 4.22

208 68 177 9 12 3.76







Maholm 170 73 119 8 11 4.55

177 49 105 10 15 5.02







Chacon 124 64 78 5 9 5.23

96 48 79 5 5 3.94







Gorzy 147 57 122 9 7 3.49

201 68 135 14 10 3.88







Armas 167 78 119 8 11 4.63

87 38 73 5 4 6.03







Capps 76 9 60 5 4 3.67

79 16 64 4 7 2.28







Grabow 72 32 68 3 5 4.50

51.2 19 42 3 2 4.53







Marte 61 29 65 4 3 3.69

45 18 51 2 9 2.38







Torres 92 33 61 5 5 3.91

52.2 17 45 2 4 5.47







Youman 43 15 25 2 2 4.00

57.1 23 29 3 5 5.97

Some thoughts here. Only 4 pitchers bested their predicted ERA... and only one of those was a starter, Snell. Most of those who went above their projection did so by more than half a run. ERA aside, Snells year was not that much better than what was expected. This is more likely due to his second half collapse bringing him back down to the BJH projections. This also demonstrates what a great year Matt Capps had. He destroyed the ERA mark set for him when it was thought he would be a set-up man, and not the man dealing with the pressure that comes with the closer's role.

The stats don't lie, this was a year of missed expectations. WE WILL not live up to the hype.

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