Bill James 2007 Pirates Comparison

So you might recall before the season we brought you what Bill James thought the Pirates would put up this year. Now it's time to revisit those numbers and see just how predictable the old PBC was, projections are in italics on the first line, results are in bold on the second line:

	H	HR	R	RBI	Avg	OPS
Wilson	163	9	72	51	0.269	0.689
	141	12	67	56	0.296	0.790
Sanchez	179	6	77	67	0.319	0.800
	183	11	77	81	0.304	0.785
Bay	173	35	108	109	0.299	0.959
	133	21	78	84	0.247	0.745
LaRoche	144	29	80	89	0.281	0.883
	153	21	71	88	0.272	0.803
Nady	107	15	50	55	0.278	0.788
	120	20	55	72	0.278	0.806
Paulino	134	9	48	56	0.298	0.764
	120	11	56	55	0.263	0.703
Bautista	66	10	35	35	0.252	0.780
	135	15	75	63	0.254	0.753
McLouth	48	4	31	14	0.258	0.713
	85	13	62	38	0.258	0.810

The most surprising revelations here are how improved Jack Wilson was at the plate last year and how Nady did not really have that big of a break out season.

On to the pitchers where it gets ugly:

	IP	BB	SO	W	L	ERA
Duke	225	63	132	12	13	3.96
	107	25	41	3	8	5.53
Snell	194	67	167	10	12	4.22
	208	68	177	9	12	3.76
Maholm	170	73	119	8	11	4.55
	177	49	105	10	15	5.02
Chacon	124	64	78	5	9	5.23
	96	48	79	5	5	3.94
Gorzy	147	57	122	9	7	3.49
	201	68	135	14	10	3.88
Armas	167	78	119	8	11	4.63
	87	38	73	5	4	6.03
Capps	76	9	60	5	4	3.67
	79	16	64	4	7	2.28
Grabow	72	32	68	3	5	4.50
	51.2	19	42	3	2	4.53
Marte	61	29	65	4	3	3.69
	45	18	51	2	9	2.38
Torres	92	33	61	5	5	3.91
	52.2	17	45	2	4	5.47
Youman	43	15	25	2	2	4.00
	57.1	23	29	3	5	5.97

Some thoughts here. Only 4 pitchers bested their predicted ERA... and only one of those was a starter, Snell. Most of those who went above their projection did so by more than half a run. ERA aside, Snells year was not that much better than what was expected. This is more likely due to his second half collapse bringing him back down to the BJH projections. This also demonstrates what a great year Matt Capps had. He destroyed the ERA mark set for him when it was thought he would be a set-up man, and not the man dealing with the pressure that comes with the closer's role.

The stats don't lie, this was a year of missed expectations. WE WILL not live up to the hype.

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